Emulation adjustment and estimation

Specify identification and estimation methods

State the identifying assumptions and choose an estimator compatible with baseline or time-varying confounding. Weighting, standardization and related methods require diagnostics and cannot guarantee exchangeability.

Flow diagram

Emulation adjustment and estimationF1.S1State identifying assumptionsF1.S2Select confounders and timestructureF1.S3Choose compatible estimation methodF1.S4Plan overlap and model checksF1.S5Specify uncertainty and contrastsF1.N1Causal estimation planEstimandConfoundersEstimatorDiagnosticsUncertaintyPrimarycontrastAdherencecontrastSensitivityF1.N2Assumptions and rationaleF1.N3Method and protocol evidenceF1.N4Causal risk differenceYᵃ(t) indicates whether an outcome wouldoccur by t under strategy a in the specifiedtarget population. The contrast comparesrisks under the two strategies, not merelyobserved treatment groups. Identificationrequires consistency, exchangeability andpositivity, with appropriate interference andcensoring assumptions. Sustained strategiesmay require methods for time-varyingconfounding affected by prior treatment.F1.S0 Start flowEmulation adjustment and estimationF1.S999 End flowEnd flow

Steps

State identifying assumptions

State consistency (the strategies correspond to well-defined interventions), exchangeability (the compared strategies have comparable potential outcomes after appropriate adjustment), and positivity (each strategy is possible at relevant covariate values). State assumptions about interference between people and informative censoring.

Select confounders and time structure

Distinguish baseline from time-varying confounding affected by prior exposure.

Choose compatible estimation method

Justify standardization, weighting or another estimator for the specified contrast.

Plan overlap and model checks

Specify diagnostics, extreme-weight handling and limits of supported inference.

Specify uncertainty and contrasts

Account for repeated episodes, clustering and the intended estimand.

Emulation adjustment and estimation

End flow

Tables and supporting information

Causal estimation plan

Causal estimation planEstimandConfoundersEstimatorDiagnosticsUncertaintyPrimarycontrastAdherencecontrastSensitivity

Do not automatically combine sequential emulation, cloning and weighting.

Assumptions and rationale

Adjustment cannot guarantee exchangeability; positivity violations can make the planned contrast unsupported.

Method and protocol evidence

Attach the protocol, methodological sources and versioned software specification supporting these decisions. Record citations and provenance; do not enter participant identifiers.

Causal risk difference

Yᵃ(t) indicates whether an outcome would occur by t under strategy a in the specified target population. The contrast compares risks under the two strategies, not merely observed treatment groups. Identification requires consistency, exchangeability and positivity, with appropriate interference and censoring assumptions. Sustained strategies may require methods for time-varying confounding affected by prior treatment.

Sources