Prediction development population and suitability

Define development population and sources

Prediction time is the moment the model would be used. Sample-size planning depends on outcome frequency, candidate parameter count and expected performance; a universal events-per-variable rule is insufficient.

Flow diagram

Steps

Define intended use

Specify users, setting, decision and prediction horizon.

Identify development sources

Document sampling, sites, dates and representativeness.

Align eligibility and prediction time

Include people whose predictors would be available when predictions are made.

Assess sample-size adequacy

Justify sample size using outcome frequency, candidate parameter count and anticipated performance, including overfitting and precision. Do not rely on a universal ten-events-per-variable rule.

Define development dataset

Record exclusions, missingness, clustering and limits of intended applicability.