Estimation and sensitivity plan
Specify estimates and robustness checks
Choose the measure before the denominator: prevalence, cumulative risk and incidence rate answer different questions. Report descriptive estimates with uncertainty and avoid attributing observed outcomes to a treatment without a comparative causal design.
Flow diagram
Steps
Define descriptive estimands
Specify prevalence, incidence, rates or summaries with their populations and denominators.
Assess information and precision
Use available-data feasibility and interval precision; justify any size requirements.
Specify estimation methods
Specify uncertainty and use person-time for rates. For fixed-horizon risks, account for censoring and competing events; a simple event count divided by entrants is insufficient with incomplete follow-up.
Address missingness and censoring
Assess patterns and prespecify analysis assumptions.
Plan sensitivity analyses
Vary definitions, observation requirements and plausible missingness assumptions.
Document interpretation limits
Keep descriptive claims distinct from causal conclusions.
Estimation and sensitivity plan
End flow
Tables and supporting information
Precision scenarios
Enter verified calculations only.
Sensitivity plan
Keep future estimates separate from this plan.
Incidence rate
D is the number of eligible incident events and Tᵢ is observed time at risk for person i. State the time unit and whether the outcome is first occurrence or recurrent events. A rate is not a probability. An event count divided by the initial cohort size is not a valid fixed-horizon risk when follow-up is incomplete; specify a survival or competing-risk approach as appropriate.